Generating reliable estimates of tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract. Deriving reliable estimates of design water levels and wave conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenging problem high relevance for, among other things, coastal offshore engineering projects risk assessment studies. Tropical cyclone geometry wind speeds have been recorded for the past few decades only, thus in poorly extremes, especially regions characterized by low number events. In this paper, challenge overcome using synthetic tracks fields generated open-source tool TCWiSE (Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool) to create thousands realizations representative 1000 years activity Bay Bengal. Each these used force coupled storm surge simulations means processed-based Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite. It shown that use provides statistics first-order hazard (i.e., speed) compared derived historical cyclones. Based on estimated fields, second-order hazards waves) are computed wind. The extreme values speed, height converge within simulated tracks. Comparing based shows that, case study, (a deterministic approach) leads an underestimation mean up −30 %. Differences between versus large spatial variability along Bengal, where with lower probability occurrence show largest difference predicted heights. addition, much larger uncertainty bands estimation both surges heights, confidence intervals being +80 % those (probabilistic approach). same realizations, effect changes frequency intensity, possibly climate change, may modeled heights was computed. As proof concept, increase +25.6 intensity +1.6 %, literature without accounting uncertainties future projection, result +11 +9 respectively. This suggests change could tropical-cyclone-induced more than just actual maximum speeds.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1561-8633', '1684-9981']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022